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NFT: MLB: Darvish to Cubs

Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 2/10/2018 3:10 pm
Quote:
Ken Rosenthal
& #8207;Verified account @Ken_Rosenthal
10m10 minutes ago

Again: Darvish to #Cubs, six years, $126M, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic. Chance to get to $150M range through incentives.

4m4 minutes ago

Sources: Chances of Darvish getting to $150M with #Cubs quite slim; would need to win multiple Cy Young awards. His guarantee is $126M over six years, making contract the longest and richest free-agent deal of off-season.


Market is finally set I guess, $21M per. Interesting to see his stuff in Wrigley.

6 years?  
UConn4523 : 2/10/2018 3:11 pm : link
They can have him. Would have been fine at 4 years for the Yanks but thatís it.
I wonder if Cashman  
Matt in SGS : 2/10/2018 3:14 pm : link
is holding his chips and salary availability to strong arm Baltimore to trade him Machado.
Thats  
Beer Man : 2/10/2018 4:27 pm : link
a lot of money for a pitcher in his 30s
Forrest Gump deal  
xman : 2/10/2018 4:34 pm : link
but Cubs squeezed 6 years out of 5 for the same money. But who wants fragile Darvish in those 5th and 6th years.
RE: Thats  
HomerJones45 : 2/10/2018 4:34 pm : link
In comment 13828603 Beer Man said:
Quote:
a lot of money for a pitcher in his 30s
Not if he pitches them into the World Series
Surprised he got that in this market  
Rflairr : 2/10/2018 4:39 pm : link
This will be as bad as that Heyward contract for them.
6 years way too much...  
Neckbone1333 : 2/10/2018 4:40 pm : link
Been saying along that I want Cobb. ERA is great over the past 5 years (minus the 22 inning year due to TJ surgery) and he has the stones to pitch well in the AL East, and do well.

He can give you 160 solid innings as a starter which should be fine.
Arrieta is still on the market, right  
allstarjim : 2/10/2018 4:57 pm : link
This would ostensibly signal he would not be returning to the Cubs?
Gotta be  
old man : 2/10/2018 5:25 pm : link
an OUT after 3 years, no?
35 y.o. Lester, 5/6-innings-on-a-good-day Darvish,then what?
They have any kids in their pitching pipeline?
Signing just seems odd for them.
Bullet dodged for the Yanks  
Stan in LA : 2/10/2018 5:39 pm : link
And Dodger fans are driving him to the airport.
Nice deal for Cubs, but man this is an old team  
Shecky : 2/10/2018 5:54 pm : link
Theyíve gotten old quick. Four big names on the decline at nearly $90mm in Darvish, Lester, Zobrist and Heyward. Couple guys on great contracts still, but with payroll where it is now and not the same farm as a few years ago, they really have little room for error moving forward.
RE: I wonder if Cashman  
M.S. : 2/10/2018 6:04 pm : link
In comment 13828528 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
is holding his chips and salary availability to strong arm Baltimore to trade him Machado.

How does Cashman strong arm the Birds?
Would have liked Yu for  
section125 : 2/10/2018 6:06 pm : link
3 years, not 5 or 6. But would rather bring up the young guys.
RE: RE: I wonder if Cashman  
dpinzow : 2/10/2018 6:09 pm : link
In comment 13828690 M.S. said:
Quote:
In comment 13828528 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


is holding his chips and salary availability to strong arm Baltimore to trade him Machado.


How does Cashman strong arm the Birds?


--Machado is out of contract after this year
--Machado wants to go to the Yankees, so he has little trade value to any other team unless that team rents him for 2 months
--Baltimore gets virtually nothing for him if Machado leaves in FA

The only reason Machado isn't already a Yankee is because the Angelos family, who owns the Orioles, detests the Yanks
As for Darvish, good move to pass by Cashman  
dpinzow : 2/10/2018 6:13 pm : link
Darvish is a short term solution for the Yanks who are building long term
One more Machado tidbit  
dpinzow : 2/10/2018 6:20 pm : link
This was reported at the Winter Meetings

Baltimore had a Machado trade set up with the White Sox but Machado torpedoed it by saying he would sign with the Yankees in free agency. The White Sox were only making that trade with the guarantee of signing Machado to a long-term deal. The White Sox are also at the start of a multi-year rebuild so Machado did not want to spend 2, possibly 3 more years of his prime on a team that didn't have a chance to win
My brother in law, a huge Cubs fan, likes the move.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 2/10/2018 6:22 pm : link
He says most of their core position players are years away from their big paydays and this is a win now team. I gotta imagine this makes them the clear favorites in the NL Central.
RE: Nice deal for Cubs, but man this is an old team  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2018 6:44 pm : link
In comment 13828675 Shecky said:
Quote:
Theyíve gotten old quick. Four big names on the decline at nearly $90mm in Darvish, Lester, Zobrist and Heyward. Couple guys on great contracts still, but with payroll where it is now and not the same farm as a few years ago, they really have little room for error moving forward.

I don't think old is the right word. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras are all 26 or younger. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Chatwood, and Mike Montgomery are 28, Quintana is 29.
RE: My brother in law, a huge Cubs fan, likes the move.  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2018 7:19 pm : link
In comment 13828721 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
He says most of their core position players are years away from their big paydays and this is a win now team. I gotta imagine this makes them the clear favorites in the NL Central.

Cubs fans should be excited. Their young offensive core is the best in baseball. When the time comes to extend Bryant and co. they will have the contracts of Lester and Zobrist off the books.
RE: RE: Nice deal for Cubs, but man this is an old team  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 2/10/2018 7:59 pm : link
In comment 13828741 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 13828675 Shecky said:


Quote:


Theyíve gotten old quick. Four big names on the decline at nearly $90mm in Darvish, Lester, Zobrist and Heyward. Couple guys on great contracts still, but with payroll where it is now and not the same farm as a few years ago, they really have little room for error moving forward.


I don't think old is the right word. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras are all 26 or younger. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Chatwood, and Mike Montgomery are 28, Quintana is 29.


Lots of smoke around one of Baez/Russell/Happ getting traded at some point. Zobrist is on year 3 of four-year deal, so he may get traded/retire. There's flexibility to focus on Bryant, Contreras and whoever they deem priority.
Darvish has an opt-out clause  
Steve in South Jersey : 2/10/2018 8:04 pm : link
where he can choose to be a freeagent after 2 years.

Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: Nice deal for Cubs, but man this is an old team  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2018 8:10 pm : link
In comment 13828814 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:
Quote:


Lots of smoke around one of Baez/Russell/Happ getting traded at some point. Zobrist is on year 3 of four-year deal, so he may get traded/retire. There's flexibility to focus on Bryant, Contreras and whoever they deem priority.


The Braves are a perfect match if they are looking to deal Happ. The Braves need a LF as they don't have any top prospects ready besides Acuna who will play in RF. The Braves have the deepest pool of pitching prospects which is something that the Cubs are in dire need for. I am not sure what the asking price for Happ would be.
Want  
PaulN : 2/10/2018 9:33 pm : link
No part of trading for Machado, not for a second. Can we see what Andujar is before we spend a nickel on Machado. Can't have two rookies break into the infield is a bunch of pure shit. Save the money, send the rookies out there and see what we have. Spoiled brat fans that want to spend all that money on a guy and trade for him and give up prospects, then when he sucks after a few years they scream about the player, like we have with Ellsbury, but by now nobody wanted to sign him. Bullshit too. If Andujar fails this season and you can get Machado at a reasonable price, then maybe you pull the trigger.
RE: Want  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2018 9:38 pm : link
In comment 13828860 PaulN said:
Quote:
No part of trading for Machado, not for a second. Can we see what Andujar is before we spend a nickel on Machado. Can't have two rookies break into the infield is a bunch of pure shit. Save the money, send the rookies out there and see what we have. Spoiled brat fans that want to spend all that money on a guy and trade for him and give up prospects, then when he sucks after a few years they scream about the player, like we have with Ellsbury, but by now nobody wanted to sign him. Bullshit too. If Andujar fails this season and you can get Machado at a reasonable price, then maybe you pull the trigger.

I don't think the Yankees should trade for Machado or sign him next year either. Not a Yankees fan but they need to focus on adding starting pitchers. Their offense is going to be among the best in baseball again. They have two excellent in house options for 3B in Torres and Andujar. It doesn't make sense to me to spend $25-35 million per season on Machado when they have cheap young in house options.
Glad the Yanks stayed away from that deal  
Stu11 : 2/10/2018 10:35 pm : link
maybe this will get the pitcher's market rolling now?
Include me among those glad the Yankees didn't spend on Darvish  
Milton : 2/10/2018 11:00 pm : link
I was all for adding Cole and had my heart set on Ohtani, but at this point I would rather see the Yankees promote from within than add from outside.

As for the Machado talk, ideally the Yankees can put off any decisions until the trade deadline. By then they will have more data on Andujar (either at the major league or triple-A level) to process and the Orioles will have already paid half of his $16M salary.
Dpinzow thatís just amateur analysis  
bhill410 : 2/10/2018 11:17 pm : link
Anyone trading for machado this year knew it was for only year - including Yankees. His value was always going to be set at that level and orioles decided that it makes more sense to trade him at deadline if they are out of contention. To think machado is going to Yankees if some other team offers way more is ascinine. Cashman has no different leverage over the Orioles than any other team willing to trade for a one year rental.
Money isn't terrible, but a six year deal is rough  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2018 11:38 pm : link
...
He is not going to age  
spike : 2/10/2018 11:43 pm : link
well.

Too bad for Cubs
RE: Bullet dodged for the Yanks  
BigBlue4You09 : 2/11/2018 8:57 am : link
In comment 13828666 Stan in LA said:
Quote:
And Dodger fans are driving him to the airport.


But like your predicted, the Dodgers won the World Series so he was worth it right?! 😂😂😂
If Yankees  
XBRONX : 2/11/2018 9:25 am : link
signed him. deal would have been praised.
RE: If Yankees  
Milton : 2/11/2018 9:37 am : link
In comment 13828986 XBRONX said:
Quote:
signed him. deal would have been praised.
I don't know how you can say that when for weeks everyone has been saying I hope they don't sign Darvish. It may have been rationalized, but it wouldn't've been praised.
RE: If Yankees  
BigBlueShock : 2/11/2018 9:44 am : link
In comment 13828986 XBRONX said:
Quote:
signed him. deal would have been praised.

I donít understand why people post this crap. Have you been living under a rock? Yankee fans have been almost in unison that they had no interest in signing Darvish to a monster contract. A short deal, maybe. I think most Yankee fans have seen the effect of ridiculous long term deals for players in their 30ís.

But please. Feel free to contue making shit up. Itís never stopped you before.
RE: RE: Want  
rich in DC : 2/11/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 13828865 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 13828860 PaulN said:


Quote:


No part of trading for Machado, not for a second. Can we see what Andujar is before we spend a nickel on Machado. Can't have two rookies break into the infield is a bunch of pure shit. Save the money, send the rookies out there and see what we have. Spoiled brat fans that want to spend all that money on a guy and trade for him and give up prospects, then when he sucks after a few years they scream about the player, like we have with Ellsbury, but by now nobody wanted to sign him. Bullshit too. If Andujar fails this season and you can get Machado at a reasonable price, then maybe you pull the trigger.


I don't think the Yankees should trade for Machado or sign him next year either. Not a Yankees fan but they need to focus on adding starting pitchers. Their offense is going to be among the best in baseball again. They have two excellent in house options for 3B in Torres and Andujar. It doesn't make sense to me to spend $25-35 million per season on Machado when they have cheap young in house options.


I keep pointing this out, but it doesn't seem to be getting through.

MACHADO IS NO LONGER A 3B. HE IS NOW THE O's STARTING SS.

He has been clear for a while now that while he will play 3B, his preference has always been SS. He will almost certainly demand that the team which signs him in FA sign him as a SS- and will almost certainly demand an opt-out provision early in the deal in case a team doesn't follow through on the promise to play him at SS.

Something else people forget. When Machado hits FA, he will be 26 years old- and won't turn 27 until early July in 2019. In terms of the Yanks, that will basically make him the same age as Sahncez. Bird and Judge.

In other words, if the Yanks WERE to sign him (if he hits FA, every team can sign him), he would not be some "old man" they are bringing in- he would essentially be the same age as their current core. That would allow the core to be able to stay together for a VERY long prime period- perhaps 5-6 years before decline sets in.

In addition, if the Yanks sign him as a SS, we need to remember that for all Didi has done for the Yanks, he will be a FA after 2019, he is almost 30, and is older than their core. You don't pay players for PAST performance, you pay them for what you expect going forward.

If the Yanks chose to give Didi an extension of more than 3 years, the contract would likely be a bust by year 4. With Machado, he likely does not begin his decline until year 6, maybe 7 of the deal. Which is the better choice?
RE: RE: If Yankees  
rich in DC : 2/11/2018 11:18 am : link
In comment 13828992 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 13828986 XBRONX said:


Quote:


signed him. deal would have been praised.


I donít understand why people post this crap. Have you been living under a rock? Yankee fans have been almost in unison that they had no interest in signing Darvish to a monster contract. A short deal, maybe. I think most Yankee fans have seen the effect of ridiculous long term deals for players in their 30ís.

But please. Feel free to contue making shit up. Itís never stopped you before.


The Yanks basically changed their FA model several years ago, but the average non-Yankee baseball fan hasn't noticed yet. If the Yanks sign an older player, it is on a one or two year deal now. Look at Holliday last year. CC this year.

Sure, the Yanks took on Stanton's monster deal in a trade- but also sent a bad contract out to balance some of it. If Stanton does not opt out after 2020, I suspect that the Yanks will try and trade him.

People might not know this, but if Chapman and Stanton exercise their opt outs, there is a chance that the Yanks will not have a long term contract for anyone by 2020.
The Yanks are on the hook for 7 years of Stanton at a cool  
Jim in Hoboken : 2/11/2018 11:27 am : link
30M a year after age 30. No way he's opting out, c'mon now.

You don't have to pay Judge, Sanchez, Bird, Gray, Severino eventually?

It depends on what Didi will be asking, and I don't think Torres profiles best as a SS, but Machado is a luxury we can't afford.

Do all the fuzzy math you want, but we don't need a 25M+ superstar at every position.
RE: The Yanks are on the hook for 7 years of Stanton at a cool  
BigBlueShock : 2/11/2018 11:39 am : link
In comment 13829040 Jim in Hoboken said:
Quote:
30M a year after age 30. No way he's opting out, c'mon now.

You don't have to pay Judge, Sanchez, Bird, Gray, Severino eventually?

It depends on what Didi will be asking, and I don't think Torres profiles best as a SS, but Machado is a luxury we can't afford.

Do all the fuzzy math you want, but we don't need a 25M+ superstar at every position.

You beat this drum over and over again. Continuously ignoring the fact that the Yankees DO NOT have anywhere close to $25 Million players at every position. Stanton and Tanaka are the only two. It is obvious that you chose the wrong team to root for if youíre looking for a team that doesnít spend big money if the opportunity presents itself.

Iím not saying that Iíd want them to put that kind of money into Machado, but please stop with the incessant claims that adding Machado would give them $25 million players at every position. Itís not even close.
RE: The Yanks are on the hook for 7 years of Stanton at a cool  
rich in DC : 2/11/2018 11:46 am : link
In comment 13829040 Jim in Hoboken said:
Quote:
30M a year after age 30. No way he's opting out, c'mon now.

You don't have to pay Judge, Sanchez, Bird, Gray, Severino eventually?

It depends on what Didi will be asking, and I don't think Torres profiles best as a SS, but Machado is a luxury we can't afford.

Do all the fuzzy math you want, but we don't need a 25M+ superstar at every position.


I think that the reason that the Yanks have not only built, but continue to bring in high end talent is that you can only afford so many superstars- and in 5-6 years, the Yanks will have to make some choices.

For example, if we assume that all of the Yanks young players continue to perform at or above the levels they have already set, then Sanchez, Judge and Severino are locks for long-term deals. However, Bird- while solid, could be replaceable if the Yanks develop a solid 1B.

Andujar is the best option today, but his upside is solid big league regular 3B. If the Yanks develop another 3B internally, they could elect that route as opposed to giving him a big deal.

Gray is more of a stop-gap until some of the really high upside Yankee SP prospects develop. Remember that he is only under team control (arbitration) for 2 years. He could be one they may elect to let walk for a younger guy with huge upside.

Tanaka is under contract for 3 years. Same story there- he will be entering his decline years and the mileage on that arm will be VERY high by that point.

The idea is that the Yanks will be shifting to a model where they will give out large deals to players who project to be the top or among the top at their position for a period of time. However, guys who are aging or just are good, but not great will likely be shown the door for new prospects.

Machado is something different. His upside is enormous. He has had some down seasons. He also plays on an average to below average team. What many have asked for some time is what kind of player would he be in a winning environment surrounded by strong talent- THAT is why he is projected along with Harper as the next $300-400M player.

As much as the Yanks have the best farm system in baseball top to bottom (though maybe the Braves and Padres argue with that), they do not have a middle INF prospect with Machado's upside or production. Even Torres is not projected to end up with Machado's power or middle of the lineup output.

The Yanks will spend where they have a player who is better than what everyone else has- but the cost to that going forward will be that they will have to let the league average guys walk and hope that they can identify a prospect who can give the same or more going forward- or can trade some for one who can.
After years of albatross contracts, last year was refreshing because  
Jim in Hoboken : 2/11/2018 12:01 pm : link
it was the home grown youngsters getting paid next to nothing and cheap young players acquired via trades from our system who carried the team. Tanaka seriously underperformed in the regular season, only to wake up in the post-season. Ellsbury was riding the pine for most of the year. CC surprised last year, only because he had seriously declined and we had no expectations. A-Rod was getting paid sitting next to Big Papi. All the high paid veterans sucked.

The point is, the minor league system is stacked. Give the prospects a chance, sift through the wave after wave of talent, rather than locking yourself into long term deals that have no guarantee of performance in the present and are sure to suffocate payroll flexibilty down the road.

I really like Andujar, probably more than most. He has that Cano quality to him, not in style because he isn't touted for his sweet swing, but I have a feeling that he'll grow into his arm on defense and outperform his track record on offense just like Cano did. And Didi is Didi, I don't know how you can be in a hurry to replace him. I'm set with an IF of Sanchez, Bird, Torres, Didi and Anduar, thank you very much.

We are not signing these young superstars to 3-5 year deals that will end before we have to pay our own, we are looking at 7-10 year deals that will certainly become dead weights by the second halfs. We don't need to bring those types of players in anymore because now suddenly our system is churning out prospects.
If Darvish opts out after two years  
Jay on the Island : 2/11/2018 6:57 pm : link
then this will be a fantastic deal for the Cubs.
RE: If Darvish opts out after two years  
BigBlueShock : 2/11/2018 8:36 pm : link
In comment 13829357 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
then this will be a fantastic deal for the Cubs.

I see absolutely no way that Darvish outpitches the terms of this contract enough to opt out. He will be 33 in 2 years. Look how long it took him to get this deal, I canít see him getting a better one when heís two years older.
RE: After years of albatross contracts, last year was refreshing because  
rich in DC : 2/11/2018 10:58 pm : link
In comment 13829064 Jim in Hoboken said:
Quote:
it was the home grown youngsters getting paid next to nothing and cheap young players acquired via trades from our system who carried the team. Tanaka seriously underperformed in the regular season, only to wake up in the post-season. Ellsbury was riding the pine for most of the year. CC surprised last year, only because he had seriously declined and we had no expectations. A-Rod was getting paid sitting next to Big Papi. All the high paid veterans sucked.

The point is, the minor league system is stacked. Give the prospects a chance, sift through the wave after wave of talent, rather than locking yourself into long term deals that have no guarantee of performance in the present and are sure to suffocate payroll flexibilty down the road.

I really like Andujar, probably more than most. He has that Cano quality to him, not in style because he isn't touted for his sweet swing, but I have a feeling that he'll grow into his arm on defense and outperform his track record on offense just like Cano did. And Didi is Didi, I don't know how you can be in a hurry to replace him. I'm set with an IF of Sanchez, Bird, Torres, Didi and Anduar, thank you very much.

We are not signing these young superstars to 3-5 year deals that will end before we have to pay our own, we are looking at 7-10 year deals that will certainly become dead weights by the second halfs. We don't need to bring those types of players in anymore because now suddenly our system is churning out prospects.


Almost everything in this post is silly- except for the part about Andujar, which I agree with.

The problem that runs through the entire post is that while the Yanks minors are deep in talent, there is not a single hitter in the ENTIRE minor league system who has the upside that Machado has already demonstrated. 2017 was Machado's worst full season (he was injured for half the season in 2014)- and he still OPS'd 107 with 33 HR, and an OPS of .782.

The Yanks simply do not have another prospect like that. Didi's BEST season does not match Machado's worst. Torres is not projected to have that kind of power or be a middle of the order hitter.

It may lock up a significant portion of the payroll, but the Yanks are not short of cash. Furthermore, they have been careful to make sure that the large contracts they do have will generally fall off the payroll just as the young guys will make real money. Tanaka, Ellsbury, Chapman and all the others (except Stanton) will all hit FA just as Judge, Severino, and the other youngsters reach FA themselves or their 3rd year of arbitration.

Don't believe me, look for yourself at the link below.
Cots Yankees payroll - ( New Window )
good let them have him. bad enough the $$ and length are absurd  
Victor in CT : 2/12/2018 8:24 am : link
He'll be pitching in a band box on a team expected to win. Good luck Cubbies, I'll ttake my chances with what we have in the current rotation and pushing up from below.
Lance Lynn is a guy I'd try to get on a 3 yr deal  
Victor in CT : 2/12/2018 9:00 am : link
innings eater, consistent, shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.
RE: Lance Lynn is a guy I'd try to get on a 3 yr deal  
rich in DC : 2/12/2018 10:05 am : link
In comment 13829637 Victor in CT said:
Quote:
innings eater, consistent, shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.


The problem is that he is really little more than a #3 SP who will take the ball every 5th day- CC is better than him still- and he's the 5th SP.

Even without CC, Chance Adams can give the Yanks whatever Lynn can- at a fraction of the cost- and no long term commitment.
RE: RE: Lance Lynn is a guy I'd try to get on a 3 yr deal  
Victor in CT : 2/12/2018 10:11 am : link
In comment 13829690 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 13829637 Victor in CT said:


Quote:


innings eater, consistent, shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.



The problem is that he is really little more than a #3 SP who will take the ball every 5th day- CC is better than him still- and he's the 5th SP.

Even without CC, Chance Adams can give the Yanks whatever Lynn can- at a fraction of the cost- and no long term commitment.


true, he's not an ace nor an aboslute must have, but not looking for one. CCs knee could go at anytime, as could Tanaka's elbow. At least you would have a steady vet behind Severino and not put too much pressure on the kids coming up. But your point about the commitment is valid.
Minor move  
Jay on the Island : 2/12/2018 9:19 pm : link
The Nationals acquired Matt Reynolds from the Mets for cash considerations.
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