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Statistical Analysis of QB prospects

Thegratefulhead : 2/8/2018 2:57 pm
Interesting read.
Numberfire.com Statistical analysis of QB prospects - ( New Window )
That was a good read  
Peppers : 2/8/2018 3:17 pm : link
Thanks for sharing.
Makes you think  
DonQuixote : 2/8/2018 3:35 pm : link
Thanks for sharing
Excellent read. Would Mason Rudolph be available in the second?  
Blue21 : 2/8/2018 3:36 pm : link
Grab Barkley in the first? Wow. Is this a winning combo for now and future? Very interesting read.
Yes good read  
NikkiMac : 2/8/2018 3:42 pm : link
Thanks ..... maybe a trade down and Mason Rudolph is the way to go .this is getting more and more interesting as we approach the combine and draft.
numberFire is garbage  
Eli2020 : 2/8/2018 3:44 pm : link
.
I'm all for statistical models  
Modus Operandi : 2/8/2018 4:02 pm : link
Which allow you to look at and evaluate prospects in a new way. It's interesting.

With that said, they spent all this time and effort comparing and ranking these propects and your top three statistical comparisons for Mayfield, Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are RGIII, Teddy Bridegwater and Eli Manning.

What a colossal waste of bandwith.
I like stats  
Thegratefulhead : 2/8/2018 4:04 pm : link
As part of the equation. Full disclosure, I like Mayfield and think Allen is Paxton Lynch, it certainly supports my narrative. I don't know who the Giants take. I can't even predict. This a pressure filled pick at 2, not sure I would want to make it. I have not been high on Jackson, but I am starting to come around. RPO with Jackson,Barkley,Engram and Beckham would be fuckload of speed to account for.
In the meantime  
Marty866b : 2/8/2018 4:09 pm : link
The experts who evaluate talent for a living have Darnold,Rosen,and Allen,1,2,3 and the other quarterbacks behind them. The position and its collegiate statistics go way beyond the numbers in that article. Mayfield may be #1 in that article but he is most likely going to be the 4th quarterback chosen in the draft. Also,let's not forget that Darnold and Rosen haven't even turned 21 years old yet.
RE: I'm all for statistical models  
HomerJones45 : 2/8/2018 4:18 pm : link
In comment 13827007 Modus Operandi said:
Quote:
Which allow you to look at and evaluate prospects in a new way. It's interesting.

With that said, they spent all this time and effort comparing and ranking these propects and your top three statistical comparisons for Mayfield, Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are RGIII, Teddy Bridegwater and Eli Manning.

What a colossal waste of bandwith.
Bingo. And add that college players play with wildly different supporting casts which can vary from year to year, the don't play common opponents and don't each play the same style of offense. A waste of bandwith.
I love statistical analysis  
AdamBrag : 2/8/2018 4:23 pm : link
but, I hate statistical analysis that doesn't account for level of competition and offensive style. The Big 12 plays no defense and Oklahoma and OK St. run spread offenses where QBs put up video game stats. There needs to be an adjustment for this.
If you have a conviction on a potential franchise QB, you have to go  
Ivan15 : 2/8/2018 4:52 pm : link
get him.

If you pick the 7th ranked QB because you donít like the other 6, you go from 50/50 to about 1/100 odds.
RE: I love statistical analysis  
AcidTest : 2/8/2018 7:42 pm : link
In comment 13827036 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
but, I hate statistical analysis that doesn't account for level of competition and offensive style. The Big 12 plays no defense and Oklahoma and OK St. run spread offenses where QBs put up video game stats. There needs to be an adjustment for this.


Agreed. Darnold was also sacked 9 times in 2016, but 26 times in 2017. That could easily explain a decline in his performance last season. And I'm not a big fan of him at #2.
RE: Excellent read. Would Mason Rudolph be available in the second?  
Peppers : 2/8/2018 7:52 pm : link
In comment 13826942 Blue21 said:
Quote:
Grab Barkley in the first? Wow. Is this a winning combo for now and future? Very interesting read.


I've been adamantly against drafting a RB at 2 but if we do, for the sake of conversation, if we pass on a QB at 2 I think we should skip on one early all together. That's no knock on Mason Rudolph, I just don't see much of a difference in him and developing Davis Webb.

Plus at some point early we will have to get a lineman and I do believe there will be some good value there at the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd.

Statistics is a very powerful branch of mathematics. It has been  
Marty in Albany : 2/9/2018 2:05 am : link
around for a lot longer than football has been around. Statisticians are even smarter than the gym teachers who coach football. If it were possible to base a draft choice on statistics rather than on the judgment of football experts (human beings) it would have been done a long time ago.

To put it another way: statistics are superb at explaining the past, but not very reliable at predicting the future.
I do not believe the Giants pick Mayfield  
mrvax : 2/9/2018 12:12 pm : link
but I do believe he's going to have a lot of success with some NFL team.

Like Marty said, stats cannot predict the future but it's one of many tools to evaluate a QB.
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